Coronavirus Prediction

So the number of global coronavirus cases quadrupled during the last 3 weeks from 500,000 to 2 million.

I get my coronavirus stats at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Doing some math we should expect the following when it comes to prediction the virus numbers:

1. May 6th, 8 million coronavirus cases.
2. May 27th, 32 million coronavirus cases.
3. June 17th, 128 million coronavirus cases.
4. July 8th, 600+ million coronavirus cases.

Now you might think, okay, that is a lot... We will be near the peak sometime in August. It could happen sooner, or later, depending on how much people try to quarantine and self-isolate to slow down the spread. But it is going to continue to spread. We cannot quarantine everyone. We still need to be able to buy food/toilet paper/etc.

But by the end of 2020 I am predicting 1.5 billion cases unless we manage to quarantine and isolate people so we can keep the numbers lower.

Presently the coronavirus is killing 20% of the people who get it.

So about 300 million deaths. That puts it on par with 4 times the total death count of WW2 (75 million people died during WW2).

Of course... Some people are calculating the total differently. I have seen other estimates of 100 to 400 million deaths. It really depends on how many people get it.

The biggest deciding factor of course is how much people are self-isolating. If lots of people refuse to isolate then the number will be much higher. If many people do the right thing and self isolate then we can expect a lower number.